Futures Commentary and Analysis

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US Harvest Almost Complete
Paul Georgy - IF - Tue Nov 21, 6:04AM CST
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 21, 2017.

Grain markets continue to fall into holiday-type trade as harvest wraps-up and Thanksgiving approaches. Outside markets continue to hope for US tax reform favorable to business.

US harvest is virtually complete as reported by the USDA yesterday afternoon. Corn was reported 90% harvested, inline with the average analyst estimate of 91%, but below the five-year average of 95%. 96% of the soybean crop was reported harvested, just under the 97% estimate. Winter wheat was reported 52% good to excellent, below the 54% estimate.

AgRural estimates Brazilian soybean planting at 73% complete. That is equal with last year but actually ahead of the 68% five year average. For corn they suggest a 63% planting pace compared with 79% last year at this time. The five year average is 65%.

India surprised the veg oil world by doubling their import tax on palm and refined palm to 30% and 40% respectively. The trade had been looking for a slight increase but this bump was far bigger than expected and but the tax at levels not seen in the past 10 years, according to RJO's Chris Modaff.

Export inspections for the week ending 11/16/2017 reported soybean exports of 2,131,354 tonnes, corn 632,793, and wheat 259,264.

Managed money funds were buyers of 12,000 corn, 3,000 soybeans, and 2,000 soymeal contracts in yesterday's trade. They were estimated sellers of 5,000 wheat, and 6,000 soyoil.

Holiday Hours for grains this week: normal close tomorrow, no Wednesday night trade, no Thursday trade day or night, and a Friday trade from 8:30 - noon Central.

Nebraska regulators approved the Keystone XL pipeline, removing the last big regulatory hurdle for the oil project after years of bitter protests from environmentalists and landowners, and giving President Donald Trump a victory in his campaign for U.S. "energy dominance." (Politico)

Negotiators are making progress on less contentious portions of the North American free-trade agreement such as slashing red tape for exporters and standardizing food-safety regulations between the three countries while punting the more difficult ones to future rounds of talks. The fifth session of the NAFTA renegotiation in Mexico City has taken on a workmanlike tone, with the three sides prioritizing easier parts of the deal. It is a sharp contrast with the previous round near Washington last month, which was marked by non-stop tension as the Trump administration hammered Canada and Mexico with a string of tough protectionist demands. (Reuters)

Janet Yellen announced that she will resign from the Federal Reserve once Jerome Powell is sworn in. Her term doesn't expire until 2024.

Russia has announced a temporary ban on Brazilian beef and pork starting December 1 due to findings of ractopamine.

Tyson Foods announced its planned chicken plant for Tonganoxie, Kansas was now on hold due to local opposition. It has decided to build a $300 million plant in Gibson County, Tennessee.

Cold Storage will be released by the USDA tomorrow afternoon. We see end of October pork stocks at 602.591 million lbs. That would be 14 million lower than the previous month. We expect to see 485.445 million lbs of beef at the end of October. That would represent a 2 million lb decline from the previous month.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 1.06 and select up .20. The CME Feeder Index is 156.91. Pork cutout value is up 1.31.

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