Futures Commentary and Analysis

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What's next for soybeans?
Oliver Sloup - IF - Tue Feb 13, 7:40AM CST

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CORN (March)

Yesterdays Close: March corn futures finished the session up 4 cents, trading in a range of 2 (Sunday gap higher). Funds were estimated buyers of 20,000 contracts.

Fundamentals:Export inspections came in at 835,131 metric tons, this was towards the low end of the expected range from 800,000-1,100,000 metric tons; last weeks was 1,073,868. Much of the attention remains on South America as a wet Brazil and dry Argentina could reduce final production numbers. Funds have been covering their previously record large short position for the past several weeks on these concerns. As December new crop presses closer to the $4 handle, we would expect to see producer selling start to increase.

Technicals:The market gaped higher Sunday night but couldnt advance much from there during the regular day session. The bulls are in control but really want to start seeing consecutive closes above technical resistance which we have had in our reports as 366 -369. If the bulls can chew through this pocket it should open the door to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

SOYBEANS (March)

Yesterdays Close: March soybean futures finished the session up 17 cents, trading in a range of 15 cents (Sunday night gap). Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 17,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Yesterday mornings export inspections came in at 1,319,038 metric tons, this was above the expected range from 800,000-1,100,000 metric tons; last weeks came in at 1,303,723 metric tons. There was a cancelation of 455,000 metric tons to China, this was partially offset by an export sale of 314,000 metric tons to unknown. South American weather continues to dominate the headlines and drive price action between producers, users, and traders. Rains have disappointing in Argentina, but if they work back into the radar we could see the market right back down at technical support (see technicals below).

Technicals: The market gaped higher Sunday night on the back of disappointing weather headlines in Argentina. The market accelerated to our technical resistance pocket which we have outlined as 1001-1006. A break and close above opens the door to an extension towards 1020-1027. On the flip side, if we fail to breakout or see rains starting to develop in Argentina, we could see the market come right back towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

WHEAT (March)

Yesterdays Close: March wheat futures finished yesterdays session up 15 cents, trading in a range of 13 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 487,902 metric tons, this was within the expectations between 325,000-575,000 metric tons; last weeks came in at 428,557 metric tons. Weather has been a key driver with some areas in Texas going without rain for more than 120 days. It looks like they have a chance in the coming weeks, but we will have to wait to see if that matures. Currency volatility continues to linger which likely spill over into commodities.

Technicals: The bulls have control over the chart but may encounter headwinds from 470 -472 . This pocket represents previous price points as well as the 200-day moving average, an indicator we have not seen the market close above since August. A breakout above opens the door to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


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