Futures Commentary and Analysis


Forecasts and Macros in Focus This Weekend
Paul Georgy - IF - Fri Apr 21, 5:38AM CDT

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for April 21, 2017.

Grain markets are mixed as the trading week draws to a close. Sunday night traders will have their eyes on weather maps and the French presidential elections for a macro impact.

Will we see last minute US acreage shifts? We'll speak to AgriGold Agronomy Manager, Mike Kavanaugh about the potential of the 2017 corn crop, and his thoughts on acreage expectations in our next Ag Leader's Monthly Webinar. Click here to sign up for the free event.

Stats Canada will release their estimate for 2017 crop seedings this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. Trade estimates suggest a reduction in all wheat acres from 23.21 last year to 22.4 in 2017. Canola acres are expected to increase from 20.36 in 201 6 to 21.3 in 2017.

NOAA forecast maps for the month of May project good planting weather throughout the cornbelt. Temperatures look to be normal to above-normal, while precipitation will be normal to below-normal for the majority of the area.

Brazilian farmers are estimated to produce a record 93.2 million tonnes of corn this 2016/17 crop year according to a Reuters poll. That number is up from the previous estimate of 89.6 million tonnes.

Weekly Export Sales for the week ending April 13 had combined old and new crop corn sales at 848,172 metric tonnes (756,352 old crop), within the 800,000 – 1,300,000 trade expectation. We have sold 89% of USDA’s whole-year goal by this point, within the 86% - 90% range of the past three normal South American crop years.

Soybean sales of 225,004 metric tonnes were also reported yesterday (211,004 old crop), under the 400,000 – 800,000 trade expectation. We have sold 101% of USDA’s whole-year shipment goal. That is in the 98% - 101% pace from the past three normal SA crop years.

Wheat export sales ran 551,139 metric tonnes (413,964 old crop). That was within the 350,000 – 750,000 expectation. There are only 6 weeks left before the end of the old crop marketing year (May 31).

Managed Money Funds were estimated sellers of 10,000 corn contracts, 5,000 soybeans, 9,000 wheat, and 4,000 soymeal in yesterday's trade. They were estimated buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

The French presidential election is set to be held this weekend, on Sunday. Macro traders will watch the results intently for signs of European Union health. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, a run-off election will take place May 7th.

Average Estimates for today's Cattle On Feed report have On Feed at 99.7% of a year ago, Placements 106.5% and Marketings 109.4%. This would be the largest February marketing in six years. The USDA will release report on tomorrow at 2:00 PM CDT.

JBS announced that six of the ten beef production units it shuttered after the beef scandal hit Brazil will reopen for production next week. The other four units are expected to come back online by May 2nd.

Weekly beef export sales of 19,652 metric tonnes werereported this week. This is the best sale in 12 weeks. It was also 57% over last year in the same week and 10% over the 4 week average for the same week. Year to date sales are 22% over last year using the weekly dataset.

Hog exports totaled36,160 tonnes. It was the best sale in 12 weeks. It was 48% over last year and 75% over the four week average in the same week.

Dressed beef values were higherwith choice up.55 and select up1.57. The CME Feeder Index is 137.65. Pork cutout value is down .20.

Markets At-A-Glance – 5:30 AM

  • May Corn - 1/4
  • May Beans +3
  • May Wheat + 1 1/4
  • May Soymeal +1.50
  • May Soy oil +.03
  • Jun Dlr +.15
  • Jun S&P +1.40
  • May Crude -.02
  • Jun Gold-1.20

Technical Chart of the Day

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