Futures Commentary and Analysis


Hogs Down 5th Day In A Row
Michael Seery - IF - Fri Apr 21, 12:05PM CDT

Lean Hog Futures---Lean hog futures in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 72.50 while currently trading at 68.20 down for the 5th consecutive trading session as prices have absolutely fallen off a cliff in recent weeks.

I have been recommending a short position from the 77.45 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss above the 10 day high at 74.10 as the chart structure will not improve for another 3 trading sessions as the risk remains high at this point in time.

The next major level of support is the contract low which was hit on September 30th 2016 as there was a head and shoulders bottom that was formed on the weekly chart, as that price stands at 66.40 & if that is broken I think there could be a washout to the low 60s ,however I am surprised at how quickly prices have dropped especially due to the fact that cattle prices hit another contract high today but having very little impact on hogs.

The problem in hogs is the expansion has finally come to play as this market was extremely bullish & had a terrific trend from late September until just around a month ago just like the cattle situation now, however reality has set in so stay short but do not add any more contracts as the risk/reward is not in your favor.TREND: -LOWER–CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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