Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Seasonality Snapshot for Week 17 in Heating Oil, Rough Rice, and Lumber Futures
Karl Montevirgen - IF - Fri Apr 21, 12:18PM CDT

Note: Week #17 for 2017 begins NEXT WEEK on Sunday, April 24 and ends Friday, April 28.

We are introducing heuristic interpretive tables below each set of market statistics to help you better navigate the data. The full set of heuristic tables will be made available soon.


HEATING OIL: Seasonal price movements for Week 17 from 1983 – 2016 are as follows:

  • Prices Rising: 41%
  • Prices Falling: 59%

The total average change is at -1.49%, with the average rise in price at 2.49% and the average decline at -4.29%. The highest rise in price is 6.71%, median at -0.66%, while the largest decline in price is at -14.98%.

heating oil

ROUGH RICE: Seasonal price movements for Week 17 from 1992 – 2016 are as follows:

  • Prices Rising: 56%
  • Prices Falling: 44%

The total average change is at 0.02%, with the average rise in price at 2.74% and the average decline at -3.45%. The highest rise in price is 6.96%, median at 0.52%, while the largest decline in price is at -13.66%.

rice

LUMBER: Seasonal price movements for Week 17 from 1979 – 2016 are as follows:

  • Prices Rising: 58%
  • Prices Falling: 42%

The total average change is at 0.09%, with the average rise in price at 3.10% and the average decline at -4.04%. The highest rise in price is 8.66%, median at 0.79%, while the largest decline in price is at-7.61_%.

lumber


This is strictly a historical record and interpretation of price movements. It may be relevant to certain market participants who find such information useful as a supplement to their market analysis. In no way should this information be read as a predictive indicator, and by no means does this information imply consistency despite its recording of price movements that may appear consistent.

When viewing historical patterns, you may want to comparatively analyze the data across a larger context of interpretive measures. It is also important to consider the figures (e.g. the percentage of rising vs. falling prices) in relation to one another (e.g. the average rise and fall of prices).

The larger the data set, the smaller the differences between polarities (e.g. rise vs. fall, increase vs. decrease). When you come across a week that shows a significant difference in relation to other weeks, the statistical significance of the figures and its interpretation is to be determined solely by your analysis and judgment.

This information is part of a research product available through Halifax America:

For more information about our research, contact me at kmontevirgen@halifaxamerica.com.


Risk Disclosure

This presentation is solely for educational purposes. As a seasonality study, it is strictly a historical presentation of data that has been compiled with the aim of achieving a representation that is as accurate as possible. Even then, we cannot claim that all of the information is completely devoid of human error during the compilation or calculation process. This presentation is not a trade recommendation, nor does it recommend any trading method. It is strictly a historical report. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results.

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment and only risk capital should be used. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The lower the margin used the higher the leverage and therefore increases your risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


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