U.S. Dollar at Fresh Six Month Low
May 19, 2017
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Global stock markets edged higher as most commodity prices advanced.
Since the March 9, 2009 lows were made, there has been a multitude of geopolitical events that pressured futures. However, every time the break was short-lived, as prices recovered and made new highs. The current domestic political situation will be no exception.
After a period of consolidation, expected a new leg up for stock index futures.
Nothing has changed in our long term outlook. The main trend for stock index futures is higher.
The U.S. dollar fell to a fresh six month low today in spite of the increased probabilities of a fed funds rate hike next month.
The U.S. dollar index has underperformed the news most of this year, which should be viewed as a sign of weakness.
The euro currency is higher due to news that German producer prices posted their strongest annual gain in over five years. Producer prices jumped 3.4% from April last year. Economists had forecast a 3.2% rise.
Higher crude prices supported the “commodity currencies,” the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.
In addition, the Canadian dollar was supported by a report that showed retail sales climbed .7% in March from February due to strong demand for new and used cars.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
At 1:40 central time San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will speak about the view from a policymaker.
The probability of a rate hike at the June 14 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is 74%, which compares to 54% yesterday.
Once the domestic political and global geopolitical issues settle down, the dominant influences of a stronger global economy and rising global inflation will ultimately take futures lower, especially at the long end of the curve.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
June 17 S&P 500
Support 2358.00 Resistance 2378.00
June 17 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 97.110 Resistance 97.770
June 17 Euro Currency
Support 1.11090 Resistance 1.12110
June 17 Japanese Yen
Support .89550 Resistance .90110
June 17 Canadian Dollar
Support .73440 Resistance .73930
June 17 Australian Dollar
Support .7401 Resistance .7475
June 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 153^8 Resistance 154^4
June 17 Gold
Support 1244.0Resistance 1259.0
July 17 Copper
Support 2.5250 Resistance 2.5700
June 17 Crude Oil
Support 49.13 Resistance 50.31
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.