Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Euro Currency at a Three Week High
Alan Bush - IF - Tue Nov 14, 8:51AM CST

November 14, 2017

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

The National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Index for October was 103.8, which compares to 103.0 in September.

The October producer price index increased .4%, which compares to the estimate of a gain of .1%. On an annualized basis the producer price index increased 2.8%, when a gain of 2.4% was expected.

While traders and analysts are focusing on politics as a negative, it will be the still relatively low global interest rate environment that sustains this bull market in the long term.

In spite of lower prices today, the main trend for stock index futures is higher.


CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is lower and the euro currency advanced to a three week high due to strong German economic growth figures.

German gross domestic product increased .8% in the third quarter, which was better than forecasts of up .6%. This report showed the economy expanding at annualized rate of over 3%.

In addition, German economic sentiment picked up further in November, when the ZEW think tank said its measure of economic expectations increased to 18.7 points from 17.6 points in October.

The British pound came under pressure on news that U.K. inflation remained unchanged in October, when an increase had been anticipated.

Annualized consumer price index inflation in the U.K. held steady at 3% last month, when analysts had expected it to rise to 3.1%.

The Australian dollar only temporarily was pressured on news that China's economy slowed last month as the government extended a crackdown on factory pollution.

Industrial output in China increased 6.2% year-to-year in October, missing analysts' expectations of a 6.3% gain.

The Australian dollar is often used as a proxy for China because of the countrys large exports of raw materials to China.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are steady at the front of the curve and higher at the long end.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 12-13 meeting is over 98%.

In addition, analyst are predicting two or three more fed funds rate hikes in 2018.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

December 17 S&P 500

Support 2569.00 Resistance 2584.00

December 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 93.800 Resistance 94.510

December 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.16770 Resistance 1.17980

December 17 Japanese Yen

Support .88030 Resistance .88450

December 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .78340 Resistance .78870

December 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7603 Resistance .7659

December 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 152^0 Resistance 153^0

December 17 Gold

Support 1267.0 Resistance 1283.0

December 17 Copper

Support 3.0900 Resistance 3.1300

December 17 Crude Oil

Support 56.10 Resistance 57.03

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.


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