Futures Commentary and Analysis

Back

Be A Contrarian
Jerry Welch - IF - Tue Jan 10, 11:43AM CST

“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not
intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures
contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot
guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations
were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades
exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance
is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with
trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal
or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

It is an outstanding day for virtually all markets this afternoon with stocks as measured by Dow futures are posting a 50 point gain and more than 100 points off the low of the day. Commodities as measured by the CRB Index is 103 higher and also doing well. Basically, this is one of those days were, “if you are not long, you are wrong!”

But a contrarian would look at a day such and this and say, “sell something that is weak” since there is so much strength everywhere here today. A contrarian would go on to say. “Any market that closes lower today is likely to see more red ink tomorrow. To be frank, I would agree with any contrarian viewing today in such a manner.

In the past few minutes with so many markets doing well here are a few markets now flashing red.

1. Gold is $2 lower but silver 15 cents higher with copper up 775 points. I mentioned a few days ago here in Inside Futures to buy silver and sell gold and that trade is just now starting to perform nicely. And if gold ends the day in the ugly, the odds are great it will show further weakness tomorrow.

2. Spring and summer month lean hog futures just posted new highs for move but are clinging to gains pegged at unchanged to 10 higher at best. A lower close is a downside key reversal.

Of course, the day is young and subject to change. But for those that are contrarians, I would try to come out of day, short spring and summer month hogs and short gold with longs in silver.

The time is 11:42 a.m. Chicago

“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not
intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures
contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot
guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations
were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades
exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance
is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with
trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal
or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”


Back
Markets: Currencies - Energies - Financials - Grains - Indices - Meats - Metals - Softs - Full List Contact Us