Futures Commentary and Analysis

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President - Elect Donald Trump Press Conference Today
Alan Bush - IF - Wed Jan 11, 8:38AM CST

January 11, 2017

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

NASDAQ futures advanced to new historical highs yesterday, although stock index futures are mixed today.

Mortgage applications in the week ended January 6 increased 5.8%, which compares to the .1% increase in the previous week.

President-elect Donald Trump will give his first formal press conference since winning the U.S.

Presidential election. The 10:00 central time press conference will be held at Trump Tower in New York, where he has been holding meetings with cabinet candidates.

Some analysts are predicting earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in the fourth quarter of 2016 could be as high as 5.8% and earnings growth estimates are in the double digits range for the first and second quarters of this year.

Expect new historical highs for all of the major stock index futures.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is higher even though the probabilities of tighter credit from the Fed decreased from yesterday.

The greenback is likely to continue to be supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve, which is the only major central bank that is on track to increase interest rates this year.

The British pound, which established itself as the worst performing currency this year of the currencies of the Group of 10 countries, fell to an 11 week low today.

The pound ignored the bullish impact of the stronger than predicted advance in industrial production in the U.K., as traders centered on the political aspects of Brexit.

U.K. industrial production in November increased 2.1%, which was the largest increase in seven months.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Dudley of the Federal Reserve will speak at 11:20.

The Treasury will auction ten year notes today.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at its May 3 meeting is 35%, which compares to 39% yesterday and the probability of a rate hike at the June 14 meeting is 65%, when 67% was predicated yesterday.

In spite of holding up relatively well today, the main trend is lower for the entire interest rate futures complex, but especially for the thirty year Treasury bond futures.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

March 17 S&P 500

Support 2257.00 Resistance 2272.00

March 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 101.860 Resistance 102.760

March 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.05150 Resistance 1.06110

March 17 Japanese Yen

Support .86030 Resistance .86770

March 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .75380 Resistance .75760

March 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7337 Resistance .7387

March 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 152^4 Resistance 153^2

February 17 Gold

Support 1181.0 Resistance 1196.0

March 17 Copper

Support 2.6050 Resistance 2.6350

February 17 Crude Oil

Support 50.59 Resistance 52.03

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.


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