Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Morning Grains. 01/11/17
Jack Scoville - IF - Wed Jan 11, 11:11AM CST

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 12, 2017 195 Jan 10, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 12, 2017 208 Jan 10, 2017
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 12, 2017 16 Jan 10, 2017
SOYBEAN January Jan. 12, 2017 151 Jan 09, 2017

DJ Survey: USDA 2017-2018 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of acres for 2017-18 U.S. winter wheat that was planted in October and November, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. 2017-18 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Average Range USDA 2016-17
All Winter Wheat 34.2 31.7-36.4 36.1
Hard Red Winter 25.1 22.6-26.7 26.6
Soft Red Winter 5.6 4.8-6.6 6.0
White Winter 3.5 3.3-4.3 3.5
All Winter Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Advanced Market 35.2 26.1 5.7 3.4
Agrivisor 34.6 24.7 6.6 3.3
Allendale 34.0 24.9 5.8 3.3
DC Analysis 33.8 24.7 5.7 3.4
Daniels Trading 35.5 26.0 6.0 3.5
Doane 34.5 25.3 5.7 3.4
EDFMan Capital 31.7 22.6 4.8 4.3
Farm Futures 34.8 25.0 6.0 3.7
Futures INTL 34.0 26.0 4.8 3.3
INTL FCStone 32.7 23.9 5.2 3.6
Sid Love Consulting 34.0 25.0 5.5 3.5
MaxYield 36.1 26.6 6.0 3.5
Northstar 34.5 25.4 5.6 3.5
Price Group 33.9 25.2 5.3 3.4
Prime-Ag 34.0 25.0 5.5 3.5
RJ O’Brien 33.1 24.2 5.6 3.3
Vantage RM 34.4 24.9 6.0 3.5
Western Milling 33.3 25.1 5.0 3.3
Zaner Ag Hedge 36.4 26.7 6.2 3.5
AVERAGE 34.2 25.1 5.6 3.5
USDA 2016-17 36.1 26.6 6.0 3.5

DJ Survey: Dec. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for December 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2016 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range Sept. 2016 Dec. 2015
Corn 12,358 11,706-12,540 1,738 11,238
Soybeans 2,951 2,785-3,119 197 2,715
Wheat 2,044 1,828-2,139 2,527 1,746
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 12,445 2,928 1,891
Agrivisor 12,195 2,785 2,112
Allendale 12,398 2,989 2,139
DC Analysis 12,446 2,930 2,123
Daniels Trading 12,400 2,900 2,100
Doane 12,412 2,935 2,050
EDFMan Capital 12,470 3,010 2,000
Farm Futures 12,329 2,972 2,108
Futures INTL 12,395 2,895 2,095
INTL FCStone 12,385 3,049 2,128
Sid Love Consulting 12,447 3,119 2,094
MaxYield 12,100 2,875 1,950
Northstar 12,475 2,910 1,900
Price Group 12,335 2,890 2,078
Prime-Ag 12,400 2,900 2,100
RJ O’Brien 12,477 2,921 2,137
Vantage RM 12,540 2,995 1,940
Western Milling 12,441 3,048 2,069
Zaner Ag Hedge 11,706 3,014 1,828
AVERAGE 12,358 2,951 2,044
USDA Sept. 2016 1,738 197 2,527
USDA Dec. 2015 11,238 2,715 1,746

DJ January World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2016-17, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17 USDA
Average Range December
Corn 221.9 218.0-225.0 222.3
Soybeans 82.5 79.6-84.8 82.9
Wheat 251.9 250.2-254.0 252.1
2016-17
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 223.0 83.2 252.0
Allendale 220.1 82.3 250.2
Daniels Trading 221.5 82.5 251.5
Doane N/A 82.0 251.0
EDFMan Capital 225.0 83.0 251.0
Farm Futures 218.0 81.5 251.4
Futures INTL 220.0 82.5 253.5
INTL FCStone 224.8 79.6 252.6
MaxYield 224.0 84.8 254.0
Northstar 219.3 81.0 251.0
Prime-Ag 224.0 83.0 253.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 220.7 84.2 251.1
AVERAGE 221.9 82.5 251.9
USDA December 222.3 82.9 252.1

DJ U.S. January Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2016-17, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. 2016-17 Stockpiles (millions) USDA
Average Range December 2015-16
Corn 2,396 2,206-2,800 2,403 1,738
Soybeans 468 430-515 480 197
Wheat 1,148 1,100-1,340 1,143 976
2016-17
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,411 515 1,128
Agrisource 2,283 452 1,118
Agrivisor 2,272 438 1,118
Allendale 2,345 462 1,143
DC Analysis 2,403 480 1,158
Daniels Trading 2,303 430 1,100
Doane 2,432 470 1,135
EDFMan Capital 2,500 490 1,130
Farm Futures 2,206 450 1,143
Futures INTL 2,455 456 1,169
INTL FCStone 2,494 439 1,130
Sid Love Consulting 2,410 490 1,143
MaxYield 2,800 460 1,340
Northstar 2,303 470 1,133
Price Group 2,278 453 1,147
Prime-Ag 2,450 490 1,125
RJ O’Brien 2,456 471 1,175
US Commodities 2,460 481 N/A
Vantage RM 2,395 465 1,143
Western Milling 2,435 457 1,162
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,226 510 1,123
AVERAGE 2,396 468 1,148
USDA December 2,403 480 1,143
USDA 2015 1,738 197 976

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2016 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range November 2015
Corn Production 15,198 14,999-15,320 15,226 13,601
Corn Yield 175.3 173.4-176.5 175.3 168.4
Harvested Acres 86.8 86.5-86.9 86.8 80.7
Soybean Production 4,380 4,339-4,440 4,361 3,926
Soybean Yield 52.7 52.3-53.5 52.5 48.0
Harvested Acres 83.0 83.0-83.4 83.0 81.7
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Harvested Production Yield Harvested Acres
Advanced Market 15,259 175.8 N/A 4,407 53.1 N/A
Agrisource 15,131 174.8 N/A 4,380 52.8 N/A
Agrivisor 15,170 174.7 86.8 4,339 52.3 83.1
Allendale 15,179 175.5 86.5 4,366 52.6 83.0
DC Analysis 15,231 175.4 86.8 4,361 52.5 83.0
Daniels Trading 15,226 175.3 86.8 4,361 52.5 83.0
Doane 15,240 175.5 86.8 4,385 52.8 83.0
EDFMan Capital 15,277 176.0 N/A 4,399 53.0 N/A
Farm Futures 15,050 176.0 N/A 4,365 52.4 N/A
Futures INTL 15,202 175.0 86.9 4,350 52.4 83.0
INTL FCStone 15,226 175.3 86.8 4,382 52.8 83.0
Sid Love Consultin 15,233 175.5 86.8 4,382 52.8 83.0
MaxYield 15,320 176.5 86.8 4,440 53.5 83.0
North Star 15,126 174.2 86.8 4,381 52.7 83.0
Price Group 15,100 173.9 N/A 4,383 52.8 N/A
Prime-Ag 15,277 176.0 86.8 4,399 53.0 83.0
RJ O’Brien 15,226 175.8 N/A 4,377 52.7 N/A
RMC 15,226 175.3 86.8 4,361 52.5 83.0
US Commodities 15,242 175.6 86.8 4,366 52.6 83.0
Vantage RM 15,190 175.0 86.8 4,380 52.7 83.2
Western Milling 15,233 175.5 N/A 4,374 52.7 N/A
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,999 173.4 86.5 4,420 53.0 83.4
AVERAGE 15,198 175.3 86.8 4,380 52.7 83.0
USDA Nov. 15,226 175.3 86.8 4,361 52.5 83.0
USDA 2015 13,601 168.4 80.7 3,926 48.0 81.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was narrowly mixed yesterday. Ideas are that index funds will be strong buyers of Wheat to get their portfolios in balance with the weights in the fund documents. Selling came from some forecasts for beneficial precipitation in the Great Plains over the next week. The market remains strong on worries about US production potential for Winter Wheat as crop condition ratings released by USDA last week that showed worse than expected conditions, especially in the Great Plains. USDA will release its Winter Wheat planted area report and most expect reduced area due to weather and price. It could be the lowest planted area estimate in decades. The Great Plains has been affected by both problems, while the Midwest should have reduced planted area primarily due to low prices. The demand for higher quality Wheat remains the spread feature of the market as Minneapolis remains much stronger than the Winter Wheat markets. Reports of dry conditions in the Great Plains continue. Weekly charts show that all three futures markets have turned trends up.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal through Saturday, than above normal.. Northern areas should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal through Saturday, then above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal through this weekend, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 429, 435, and 449 March. Support is at 421, 411, and 407 March, with resistance at 429, 432, and 437 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 438 and 453 March. Support is at 432, 426, and 420 March, with resistance at 440, 445, and 449 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 562 March. Support is at 546, 541, and 537 March, and resistance is at 564, 570, and 576 March.

RICE
General Comments: Futures closed slightly lower in consolidation trading. Trading was mostly very quiet once again. The market is not sure about US production after a mixed harvest and also worried about demand Export demand has been running below year ago amounts, but domestic demand is only fractionally behind last year. The chart patterns once again show the potential for a short term  bottom at this time, but futures look to test support closer to the 950 March level one more time. The overall market remains quiet, with Asian prices about unchanged and US markets quiet. Most cash market sellers will look for higher prices before selling. Prices are still too cheap and are well below the cost of production for just about all US producers. The producers in the South are already starting to look at what to plant next year. It seems apparent that Rice acreage will be cut back in 2017 due to the bad prices seen now.
Overnight News: Precipitation expected tomorrow and Wednesday and then again about Saturday. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1009 and 1043 March. Support is at 953, 941, and 928 March, with resistance at 986, 990, and 1002 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 11
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.36 8.50 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.00 8.69 0.00
Brokens 8.06 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed slightly lower in narrow range trading. Ideas are that the index funds will need to buy a lot of Corn as Corn prices remain relatively cheap. However, most are more concerned with the potential for increased production in the USDA reports on Thursday. The main feature for the week will be the USDA annual production reports that will be released on Thursday morning Chicago time. The trade expects increased production and a marginal production increase is possible. However, demand could be increased in the updated monthly supply and demand estimates as export demand until now has been strong. US producers remain unwilling to sell at current levels as prices are still too cheap. South America is still not really offering Corn, with no offers showing from Brazil until August and no competitive offers noted from Argentina. It remains very wet in central and northern Argentina and Corn planting progress has been affected.
Overnight News: .
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 356, 351, and 348 March, and resistance is at 363, 364, and 365 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 223, 219, and 216 March, and resistance is at 233, 235, and 239 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on mostly fund buying. The CONAB Brazil production estimates were considered neutral for the trade. There are continued forecasts for dry weather in central and northern areas of Brazil and also for southern Argentina. However, some light precipitation is now forecast for northern Brazil late this week. This precipitation could be very beneficial if it happens. It is expected to turn dry again once the rains are done moving though by this weekend. Argentina and Southern Brazil could get more rains. Some areas in central Argentina could see some heavy rains, although some forecasts are calling for more moderate rains soon. Flooding has been reported in central Argentina. The market expects the strong export demand to start to fade as competition increases from South America. Soybeans will be sold on rallies if they rallies occur. Soybeans are enjoying a strong price advantage right now and planted area increases next year could be significant. USDA will issue the annual production reports on Thursday morning, and a marginal increase in Soybeans is expected. Demand should also increase as export sales are well ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets and as crush volumes inside the US remain strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 993, 990, and 984 March, and resistance is at 1016, 1022, and 1028 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 311.00, 309.00, and 305.00 March, and resistance is at 319.00, 324.00, and 325.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3490, 3460, and 3420 March, with resistance at 3560, 3620, and 3660 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed a little higher after a choppy session. Prices had traded lower much of the day, but found buying late. A weaker Canadian Dollar helped buying interest, but the weakness in Chicago Soybeans proved to be the overriding factor. Commercials were strong buyers. Palm Oil was lower in reaction to bearish production and demand data from MPOB. Some Support came from the good start to exports this month as noted by the private surveyors. Short term trends are mixed on reduced production, but traders worry about demand that has been sliding on the export front for the last few months. Longer term trends remain mostly up.
Overnight News: SG said that exports of Malaysian Palm Oil so far this month are 338,777 tons, from 305,990 tons in December.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 495.00, 493.00, and 486.00 March, with resistance at 502.00, 506.00, and 508.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3030, 3010, and 3000 March, with resistance at 3120, 3130, and 3160 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation ends. Mostly dry after today and through the weekend, more precipitation next week. Temperatures will average above normal today, then below normal through this weekend and above normal next week.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 42 Mar 110 Mar 44 Mar 4-Mar
February 44 Mar 44 Mar 39 Mar
March 45 Mar 44 Mar 30-Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
January
February plus 71 March minus 18 Mar
March plus 58 March minus 18 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 10
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 477.20 up 8.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 512.00 up 0.80
2 Can 499.00 up 0.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 520.00 up 0.80
2 Can 507.00 up 0.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 178.00 up 3.00
Can Feed 171.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 165.00 dn 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 762.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 757.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 750.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 712.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 677.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 762.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 757.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 750.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 712.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 677.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 765.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 705.00 05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,300.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 478.00 +08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4700)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 301,582 lots, or 12.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-17 – – – 4,338 4,338 4,338 0 0 6,000
Mar-17 4,096 4,172 4,085 4,085 4,067 4,122 55 10 1,102
May-17 4,163 4,214 4,161 4,174 4,185 4,186 1 288,396 215,232
Jul-17 – – – 4,217 4,216 4,217 1 0 30
Sep-17 4,099 4,149 4,099 4,110 4,118 4,116 -2 10,984 24,236
Nov-17 – – – 4,149 4,149 4,149 0 0 4
Jan-18 4,058 4,090 4,043 4,061 4,070 4,063 -7 2,174 13,110
Mar-18 – – – 4,210 4,217 4,210 -7 0 10
May-18 4,109 4,136 4,109 4,112 4,126 4,115 -11 18 100
Corn
Turnover: 1,118,526 lots, or 16.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-17 1,500 1,567 1,500 1,567 1,479 1,501 22 326 7,800
Mar-17 1,466 1,472 1,466 1,469 1,467 1,469 2 336 8,864
May-17 1,506 1,514 1,503 1,507 1,507 1,509 2 981,004 2,501,116
Jul-17 1,540 1,542 1,535 1,537 1,536 1,538 2 48 1,580
Sep-17 1,579 1,582 1,569 1,573 1,571 1,575 4 136,528 426,520
Nov-17 1,619 1,619 1,602 1,606 1,608 1,608 0 284 788
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,237,068 lots, or 62.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-17 3,090 3,090 2,967 2,970 2,997 3,069 72 1,010 6,088
Mar-17 3,033 3,033 2,971 2,971 2,928 3,003 75 8 108
May-17 2,774 2,836 2,773 2,824 2,772 2,810 38 1,997,404 2,287,546
Jul-17 2,798 2,846 2,798 2,846 2,798 2,816 18 8 154
Aug-17 2,836 2,836 2,835 2,835 2,798 2,835 37 4 106
Sep-17 2,787 2,839 2,785 2,827 2,785 2,817 32 238,620 652,926
Nov-17 2,809 2,836 2,809 2,836 2,796 2,827 31 6 62
Dec-17 2,824 2,826 2,823 2,826 2,810 2,824 14 8 32
Palm Oil
Turnover: 875,664 lots, or 54.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-17 6,744 6,744 6,334 6,380 6,366 6,356 -10 238 6,188
Feb-17 – – – 6,486 6,486 6,486 0 0 14
Mar-17 – – – 6,214 6,214 6,214 0 0 0
Apr-17 – – – 6,126 6,126 6,126 0 0 6
May-17 6,148 6,288 6,142 6,254 6,148 6,212 64 812,598 515,722
Jun-17 6,230 6,230 6,204 6,216 6,178 6,218 40 10 14
Jul-17 – – – 6,174 6,174 6,174 0 0 0
Aug-17 – – – 6,084 6,084 6,084 0 0 2
Sep-17 5,980 6,100 5,970 6,066 5,976 6,022 46 62,818 126,678
Oct-17 – – – 6,054 6,054 6,054 0 0 4
Nov-17 – – – 6,086 6,086 6,086 0 0 2
Dec-17 – – – 6,044 6,044 6,044 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 509,908 lots, or 35.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-17 6,860 6,860 6,860 6,860 6,772 6,862 90 18 450
Mar-17 6,928 6,928 6,928 6,928 6,866 6,928 62 4 4
May-17 6,860 6,952 6,850 6,950 6,852 6,908 56 467,120 702,340
Jul-17 6,820 6,922 6,820 6,912 6,802 6,868 66 8 12
Aug-17 – – – 7,008 7,008 7,008 0 0 2
Sep-17 6,930 7,030 6,924 7,022 6,926 6,978 52 42,758 193,120
Nov-17 – – – 6,982 6,982 6,982 0 0 6
Dec-17 – – – 7,012 7,012 7,012 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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