Futures Commentary and Analysis


E-Mini S&P 500: Fed’s high aspirations!
DeWayne Reeves - IF - Wed Aug 23, 5:56PM CDT

The theme for the Fed meeting is “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”! US Fed Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi are expected to speak. The Federal Reserve hosts the symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this Thursday thru Saturday! To date, the market has taken the hikes as in line with the growth expectations. The coming hike(s) may not be embraced in the same light. Globally, the European Central Bank may be unwinding their stimulus as well adding to the potential concerns. August is typically the lightest volume of the year with traders vacationing. In the midst of the geopolitical concerns of a government shutdown and the anxieties over North Korea’s threats of nuclear conflict, the Fed may be bound and determined to unwind the monetary easing despite the inflation misgivings. The Fed has referenced the unwinding as “relatively soon”, thus keeping the timeline close The sentiment may be fairly negative for the E-Mini S&P 500. The Fed should take the stage as earnings season is over and this market needs a catalyst. Traders may be edgy as we enter the fall. Seasonal Memories of previous wash-outs when the market seems toppy may impact trading with increased outflows of volume.

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Today’s PMI Composite Flash for August was 56.0 while the previous reading was 54.2. Manufacturing was 52.5 while the previous reading was 53.2. The Services were at 56.9 while the previous reading was 54.2. New Home Sales for July were 571,000 while the previous reading was 610,000. Tomorrow, we look forward to the Initial Jobless Claims for the week of August 19th. New Claims are forecast at 237,000 while the previous reading was 232,000. The SAAR Existing Home Sales for July is forecast at 5.565 million annualized rate while the previous reading was 5.520 million annualized rate.

Today’s E-Mini S&P 500 (September) traded $2154.75 to $2438.75 an inside to higher day. The E-Mini S&P 500 is in a bearish stance unless it can penetrate $2465.25. Tomorrow’s range for the ESU7 could be $2447.50 to $2421.50, an inside to lower day. The roll day for the September E-Mini S&P 500 may be September 7th. The VIX was up +7.93 % to $12.25. The VIX may trade inversely to the E-Mini S&P 500.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report showed Crude Oil Inventories down -3.3 million barrels. The Motor Gasoline was down -1.2 million barrels. Demand has been steady. The draws have helped with the sentiment of bulging supplies. The increased production in the US weighs on the energy complex. The API Petroleum Stockpiles showed the Crude Oil was a draw of -3.6 million barrels. The Motor Gas Stocks were a build of +1.4 million barrels.

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