Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Between the CRB and Bonds.
Jerry Welch - IF - Wed Sep 13, 1:00PM CDT

“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

The only suggestion I made today in my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite is to probe the long side of October lean hogs. However, I have been suggesting that for the past few sessions and such a strategy simply did not work. And I came into the day holding long positions with an open loss. To my chagrin I might add.


I expected October hogs to open lower and viewed the weakness as a buying opportunity. In fact, just before the opening here is a Special Email Alert I sent to my subscribers and note the time sent.


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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!


October lean hogs are expected to open 50 lower or more. As a new trade, buy (1) October lean hog at $58.70 or lower. The market closed yesterday at $59.45. No stop for now. But if October hogs close under $58.50, I will likely exit by the close.


Expect wild and crazy trading today. Stay tuned.


The time is 8:23 a.m. Chicago time.

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The hog kills this week have been enormously large and cutout values have dropped sharply. Those are the reasons the oinkers have been slammed hard the past few sessions. And unless such fundamentals soon change, hog futures may have more to go on the downside.


But today, with the CRB Index, weighted towards grains and livestock, showing a 130 point gain and nearly at a new, 4 month high, something or several somethings in the commodity markets should begin to rally. Can it be hogs will be a market that improves moving forward since futures are posting an upside key reversal? Time will tell.


Being long commodities and in particular the ag-markets, such as grains and livestock has been difficult and certainly not profitable. But also note that in addition to the CRB showing a nice gain, bond futures are 9 ticks lower with December at 154.31, a 3 week low. When bonds are weak, it is not unusual for a host of hard asset markets, commodities if you will, begin to show strength.


Between bonds hugging a 3 week low and the CRB Index into a new, 4 month high, I would avoid the short side of commodities going into the close. And I would also probe the long side of hogs, in hopes the market is higher tomorrow.


The time is 1 p.m. Chicago


“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”




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