Futures Commentary and Analysis


Are Coffee Prices Going Lower ?
Michael Seery - IF - Sat Oct 21, 12:32PM CDT

Coffee Futures---Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 126.45 a pound while currently trading at 124.70 down about 170 points for the trading week continuing its bearish to choppy trend still possibly looking at retesting the June 22nd low of 119 in my opinion as the commodity markets at this time are extremely slow with sideways trends.

In my opinion I think a bottoming formation is occurring in coffee as there is just very little fresh fundamental news to push prices in either direction except for the fact that La Nia the weather phenomenon that could develop later this year or early next year could produce weather problems in the country of Brazil which is the largest producer of coffee in the world, but at this point in time traders are still expecting a large crop out of that country.

Coffee is still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as volatility still is relatively high, but not for such a volatile market historically speaking as I will not take short position in this commodity, but I will keep a close eye as we could be still involved in a couple weeks down the road so look at other markets that are beginning to trend with better chart structure.TREND: LOWERCHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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