Futures Commentary and Analysis

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Yen As Safe Haven
Jerry Welch - IF - Fri Feb 17, 9:40AM CST

“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not
intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures
contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot
guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations
were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades
exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

It is not unusual in times of turmoil, uncertainty and volatility that investors and traders rush toward the Japanese yen as a safe-haven. That is a well proven fact. Of course, such a strategy does not always prove profitable because nothing is a sure thing when it comes to markets and investing or trading.

But late last night and early this morning, I noticed there was widespread red ink with stocks and commodities. Certainly, the day is young and subject to change. But with this being February, a month notorious for being bearish the number of markets trading lower was surprising. And as I focused more intently on what was unfolding I noticed quickly that the two strongest currencies on the board was the yen and ‘ol greenback.

In a flash, I sent the following Special Email Alert to those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite and to my brokerage clients. I specifically stated the following.

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SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT!

As a new trade. Buy (1) June Japanese yen and sell (1) June Euro FX at the market. The last for the yen is 0.89045 and the last for the euro is 1.07060, down 29. Use $800 stop, close on this trade.

In the past when there was so much red ink everywhere and on a Friday, a rush to own the yen unfolded. I believe that is the scenario about to unfold today.

Plus, move all stops on short May cotton down to 77.95, intra-day. The high today for May cotton is 76.93 with a last of 76.26.

There is a great deal going on today most of which is bearish. Please stay alert for further emails from me.

The time is 7:07 a.m. Chicago

The day is very young and there is no saying how the markets will end the session. But the red ink I am seeing across the board this morning hints loudly that the infamous February Break has arrived and next week will be one of further losses for most markets. If so, investors and traders should contemplate some sort of strategy for protection. And based on history, the most logical strategy for the rest of today and into next week is to be long the yen. Or, long the yen and short the euro.

Once again. It is not unusual for the yen to be a safe haven in times of turmoil. Not unusual at all.

And as I type furiously away, the euro is makiing a new low for the day with the yen remains on the plus. An interesting scenario for next week is rapidly unfolding.

The time is 9:27 a.m. Chicago

“The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not
intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures
contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot
guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations
were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades
exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance
is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with
trading futures and options. “It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal
or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.”


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